[Update 26.5.2015] Comment by Raymond Merriman, financial astrologer, USA (Trước ngày 25.5.2015)
Trend studies:
The basic trend indicator study is still neutral. The
primary low of March 17 at 1141.60 was higher than the prior one at 1130.40,
which is promising, but tenuous. To be bullish, it has to exceed the previous
primary cycle crest at 1308.80. So far, that is looking like a difficult task,
but it has now exceeded the crest of the first major cycle phase within this
new primary cycle, which is bullish on a smaller scale. The high of Monday, May
19, was in the 9th week, just missing a bullish signal. As stated
last week, “The bullish 8-week rule will
kick in if prices continue making new cycle highs after this Tuesday of the 9th
week.” Missed it by one day.
The weekly moving average trend indicator studies remain
neutral and missed a chance to turn bullish. The 25-week moving average
(1208.30) moved above the 37-week MA (1206.80), but the price has now moved
back below each, 25-week can move above the 37-week, with prices can close back
above each.
The daily moving average study
remains bullish, however. The 15-day MA (1199) remains above the 45-day average
(1194) and prices are above each. They will turn to neutral if prices fall
below each this week, and bearish if at the same time, the 15-day MA falls back
below the 45-day MA.
For now, these trend indicator
studies are still neutral to bullish. But a break below 1194 threatens to
downgrade them again.
Leading Indicators (cycles and
geocosmics):
May 18 will start the 10th week of the 15-21
week primary cycle, following the low at 1141.60 on Tuesday, March 17. It is
possible for prices to fall hard to an 8-11 week half-primary cycle low,
especially since they did this same
pattern under the last Mercury retrograde. That is, they formed a high as
Mercury turned retrograde on January 21, and fell sharply for the next two months.
This will also start the 4th
week of the second 5-7 week major cycle after the low of 1168.40 on May 1, a
critical reversal date. As price started falling from last Monday, the day
before Mercury retrograde, I think we need to be cognizant of the half-primary
cycle low possibility in this forthcoming three-star critical reversal date,
May 30, +/- 3 trading days, which starts this week.
As stated last week, “…
we are entering another big time band of geocosmic signatures, May 15-June 14,
which suggests a reversal of trend, the midpoint is May 30, which is also the
middle of Mercury retrograde (May 19-June 11). The last Mercury retrograde was
January 21-22, and that was the previous primary cycle crest in Gold. It could
turn right here again or perhaps in the May 30 period. I like the late May
possibility, because heliocentric Mercury will be in Sagittarius then, which
has a 75% correspondence to highs in Gold (May 26-June 7).”
So there are several things to be aware of here. First, a
half-primary cycle low is due. Second, prices could fall hard into this low if
it forms around May 30 +/- 3 trading days, especially given that the Dollar is
strengthening now (Euro falling) ahead of the Greek default possibility when
their big debt payment comes due June 5. Third, heliocentric Mercury enters
Sagittarius May 27-June 7. When this is bullish (75% of time), we expect a low
within 9 calendar days before it enters Sagittarius, and usually just five,
followed by a sharp day rally into days 4-12 of the passage. We are going to go
with this idea, that a low is forming now and anytime by May 27, and a rally
into next week will commence. If we are wrong, it will instead fall hard, and
we know to put a stop-loss under the low that takes place 0-5 days before May 27.
The soon-to-be-released new book on Solar-Lunar
Correlations to Gold Price Reversals for Traders points to an important
reversal also May 25-27. Usually that is a crest, but not always.
